The time has come for my forecast numbers to be released, and etched in history so that come March we may revisit them and chuckle at either A. How correct they are, or B. How incredibly wrong I was in trying to predict one of the most complex systems in physical science. First and foremost, my winter forecast for the area around Southeastern Pennsylvania!   If you read part 3 of my winter forecast, you noticed that I think that the predominant...

As I stated in Part 1 of my winter forecast series, weather around the world can have a noticeable impact on the conditions in your small home town.  You can think butterfly flapping its wings in a sense, a chain reaction of events can cause something seemingly relatively minor (think 2 degrees difference in ocean temperature) to cause a rather large event.  With that in mind, I think it is important to know what to expect throughout the rest...

This is a continuation of my 2012-2013 Winter Forecast.  Part 1 can be read here. When it comes to long range forecasting, there are few things more useful than global atmospheric or oceanic patterns.  Examples of these patterns include ENSO (El Nino/La Nina), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) among many others.  What do these patterns that take place thousands of miles away...

Before being able to make an accurate forecast, one must understand the history of a location.  This history can provide bounds to a “guess” and more importantly, it gives insight on what is “normal” at a location.  Because I live in the South Eastern Pennsylvania area, I will focus on Philadelphia and Allentown but part 3 of this series will include a more national view of my winter...